EY: Greece remains on a growth trajectory

Economic activity in Greece remained resilient and, in fact, appeared slightly strengthened toward the end of 2025, supported by robust domestic demand, including investments related to the absorption of EU resources. According to the latest EY European Economic Outlook report, Greek GDP growth is expected to moderate slightly in the coming years, as the conflict in the Middle East impacts consumer spending, while support from EU funds gradually wanes.

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Economic activity in Greece maintained its momentum throughout 2025. GDP grew by 2.5% in the final quarter, consistent with an annual growth rate of 2.1%. This growth was multi-faceted, as private consumption, investment, and exports all made positive contributions, highlighting the country's gradual transition toward a more balanced growth model. Household spending was bolstered by rising employment and incomes, reflecting the ongoing normalization of the labor market and income convergence.

Regarding prices, inflation exceeded targeted levels in 2025, although it remained relatively stable throughout the year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fluctuated between 1.9% and 3.1%, averaging 2.5% on an annual basis for 2025. Underlying inflationary pressures were primarily identified in core components, with persistent price increases in domestic services, while rising food prices also contributed to headline inflation. At the same time, falling energy prices somewhat mitigated the overall price increase. Inflation rose slightly in February 2026 to 2.7% compared to the same period the previous year. Annual price growth continued to be driven by food prices and catering and accommodation services, while energy prices-particularly natural gas and heating oil-had a deflationary effect.

Outlook for Greece

Greece's GDP growth was projected to stabilize at 2.1% in 2026 (at similar levels to 2025), remaining above the Eurozone average. Growth was expected to be primarily supported by investment activity, reflecting the ongoing implementation of projects funded by NextGenerationEU (NGEU). Simultaneously, private consumption was forecast to slow slightly, due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on prices. The investment-led nature of this growth was expected to be accompanied by a significant increase in imports, which restricts the contribution of the trade balance, despite a modest rise in exports.